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July 21, 2005 Washington, DC -- Speaking at the IEEE's annual High Speed Interconnects Workshop held in Sante Fe, New Mexico in May 2005, Dr. Michael Lebby, executive director at the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association (OIDA), told an audience of optoelectronic and electronic manufacturers and researchers that miniaturization in 10-Gbit/sec technology will continue its historic trend of 10x performance gains at 3x price increases, enabling the achievement of 100-Gbit/sec transceiver modules at $1500 by 2012.
In his talk, Lebby began by reviewing the historical trends effecting 10-Gbit/sec technology.
"In the late 1990s, the industry was challenged to develop a 10-Gbit/sec fiber-optic transceiver that had 10 times the performance of existing transceivers, but at only three times the price," said Lebby. "At that time, this was a daunting and difficult prospect."
Lebby explained that optical component manufacturers met this challenge through the development and production of an 'X' series of miniaturized, hot-pluggable form factors, an achievement that took the manufacturers seven years to accomplish. The 'X' series consists of form factors that started with XGP, but has now evolved to XPAK, X2, XENPAK, XFP, and, in the near future, 10-Gbit/sec SFP.
According to Lebby, the major attraction of the 'X' series form factors for systems vendors and network operators is that the modules are hot-pluggable, and do not use traditional, expensive, and inflexible fiber pigtail connections. Lebby said that this creates savings in both capital and operations expenditures.
"Carriers can add ports as traffic grows, and mix and match protocol types, and link distances on the same line card, while carrying lower inventories," observed Lebby. "A combination of lower inventory, greater equipment flexibility, and onboard diagnostics will help to minimize installation, maintenance, and provisioning truck-rolls."
Lebby noted that the promise of form factors such as XFP and SFP will drive miniaturization at 10-Gbit/sec over the next few years, to eventually meet the next milestone for 10x performance at 3x price: 100-Gbit/sec devices priced at $1500.
Lebby said that, while challenges still remain, he believes that the outlook for such a scenario remains positive.
"Although the X-factor modules have achieved technological success, the number sold to date is still lower than was anticipated seven years ago, mostly because the demand for traffic at 10 Gbit/sec has not yet appeared," said Lebby. "However, at OIDA, we believe that this is changing. With government assistance focused on 'ultra' broadband initiatives such as FTTP and FTTH, demand for the next generation of transceiver technology will also accelerate, and will cause an increase in the X-factor business and drive transceiver technology."
Based in Washington D.C., OIDA is a non-profit association dedicated to supporting members of the optoelectronics industry. OIDA says its members lead in the research and development of enabling optoelectronics technologies in areas such as fiber-optic communications, digital imaging, and storage. The association says it serves as the voice of the industry to government and academia, and acts as a liaison to other, related global industry associations.
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